• Noel Smith

CIO, Noel Smith, featured on Gravity Exists

Original article here.


Gravity Exists asked three investors:


"What does the market reaction to the events of the last 48 hours tell us about the risks facing investors in the near and intermediate term?"

Noel Smith, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer, said:


The war-risk premium has now lessened within options markets, and traders have concluded the conflict in Europe can be contained for now by the determined-but-calm pace of sanctions imposed by Western leaders. The relative ascension of duration epitomized by the Nasdaq 100 index’s sharp outperformance of blue chips in today’s rally combined with the emotional pullback in gold prices suggests that investors are willing to begin buying back risk assets. In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, it appears dovish Fed policy expectations outweigh the risks of a wider conflict in the minds of many market participants for now. It is our view that the assumption that the worst has been priced into markets is premature. Ultimately, any resolution to global tensions will also require China to clarify its intentions regarding Taiwan.

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